Exclusive – Antoine Renaux warns: A Le Pen victory would trigger political war with Brussels

At a time when the French political scene is deeply fragmented and support for the National Rally is reaching historic highs, we spoke with Antoine Renaux, an analyst specializing in economic intelligence and geopolitical affairs. Renaux, known for his precise assessments of political dynamics and strategic relations, shares his views on France’s internal tensions, voter divisions, and the potential consequences of Marine Le Pen’s rise to power.

In an interview for REUC, Renaux examines the underlying causes of political stagnation, growing voter discontent, and the looming confrontation between Paris and Brussels — a clash that could shake the very foundations of the European Union.

Interview

Journalist: How do you explain the rise of the National Rally and its growing influence in French politics in the context of long-term social changes and political decisions made over the past decade?

Antoine Renaux: „The rise of the National Rally and its influence in French politics is the result of long-term changes in French society, as well as political decisions made over the last decade.

The first factor, which is social, economic, and geographical, is the trend described by geographer Christophe Guilluy in La France périphérique : Comment on a sacrifié les classes populaires (Peripheral France: How the working classes were sacrificed) in 2014. Guilluy refers to 70% of French municipalities and 64% of the French population, whose standard of living and political representation have collapsed with the decline of the industry since the 1990’s.

At the same time, since 2011, the French left has followed the Terra Nova think tank’s report on French political realignment, estimating that the working-class and popular electorate has been lost to the right. Jean-Luc Mélanchon’s party then began a shift towards the electorate from the suburbs in order to find a reservoir of substitute votes.

As the working-class and peripheral electorate grew and lost its political representation, this major segment of French society turned to Marine Le Pen’s new National Rally, which was the last party to address them.

Finally, if we add the fragmentation of another significant electorate in France, the retired electorate, which was divided between voting for Macron and voting for the non-Mélanchonist social-democratic left, as well as the economic fatigue of civil servants, who traditionally vote for the left but are now turning away from it, we can see the reasons for such a surge in support for the National Rally.„

Journalist: In what way does this shift affect the stability and structure of French politics?

Antoine Renaux: „This event marks the reshaping of French political life, which is divided into three antagonistic and polarized blocs, a division accentuated by social, economic, and geographical divides.

We have already mentioned the working-class voters in rural areas and small towns who support the National Rally. This bloc is opposed by an unnatural alliance of suburban residents with immigrant backgrounds and a progressive petty bourgeoisie from city centers. Finally, Macron’s electorate is characterized by an upper middle class from city centers, reinforced by a large number of retirees, who make up around 60% of the French population. 

In this respect, if we wish to model the structure of French politics, we note that the figures for the first round of the the legislative election offer a representative perspective.

For the legislative election, Emmanuel’s party received 25% of the vote, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s NUPES 26% and Marine Le Pen’s RN 18%. To which can be added 4% from Eric Zemmour’s Reconquête party, which tackled Le Pen from the right.

In the end, we find ourselves in a situation of strategic immobility, with each party sticking to its strongholds. Only the mobilization of abstentionists – 50% of the electorate in this election – can change the French political landscape, which is condemned to the political intrigues of the small parties that pull their punches.

Without them, contemporary French politics is stuck in the party intrigue that the 5th Republic sought to avoid. The current situation can be summed up by Henri Queuille’s famous quote about the Fourth Republic: „Immobilism is on the march, and nothing can stop it.„

Journalist: What specific initiatives or leadership tasks could be undertaken to guide the right-wing movement in the coming period?

Antoine Renaux: „To gain power, the RN must rely on the French population’s rejection of the parties in the center. However, this majority is extremely divided between the working classes on the right and civil servants allied with the student’s population on the left. Breaking the deadlock would therefore require mobilizing abstainers and the various small right-wing sovereignists parties, which are divided among themselves.

The challenge here is twofold: on the one hand, to convince a significant portion of the electorate that is tired of Macron/Le Pen presidential runoffs. The strategy is therefore one of “de-demonization,” already attempted for the 2022 presidential election, with the avoidance of hot topics such as immigration.

However, this strategy has resulted in limited gains among abstainers, while driving part of the RN’s traditional electorate towards Eric Zemmour, who accuses Marine Le Pen of becoming too soft.

The opposition between Eric Zemmour and her niece Marion-Maréchal Le Pen is also interesting because it highlights the divide within the right-wing electorate between the working classes, who want to maintain the economic and social security provided by the welfare state, and a section of conservative entrepreneurs and executives who feel stifled by the tax burden. This discontent is currently reflected in the slogan “Nicolas qui paie” (“Nicolas pays”) among the working population. In order to capitalize on this, the RN must therefore juggle two contradictory expectations.

This criticism is also shared by small right-wing sovereigntist parties such as Les Patriotes led by Florian Philippot, Marine Le Pen’s former right-hand man, who accuses the RN of renouncing sovereignty issues, particularly aid to Ukraine and France’s commitment to NATO.

The room for manoeuvre is therefore limited, and the RN could come to power under specific external circumstances. On two occasions, the RN’s electoral breakthrough has been blocked by electoral agreements between Jean-Luc Mélanchon’s left wing and Emmanuel Macron. Reaching the Elysée would therefore require not only that this Mélanchon-Macron alliance does not take place, but also that the left-wing and centrist blocs experience significant divisions, divisions that certainly exist but are masked by the designation of Marine Le Pen as the number one common political enemy.„

Journalist: What changes could occur in France’s relationship with the European Union if this party comes to executive power?

Antoine Renaux: „If Marine Le Pen were to come to power in the particular political circumstances we have mentioned, the fundamental question of her room for manoeuvre in implementing her program would depend first and foremost on her ability to secure a clear majority in Parliament.

Furthermore, the implementation of his program, particularly in the area of foreign policy, will also depend on the trade-offs made between conflicting objectives in the diplomatic and military spheres, but also on the domestic front. After all, foreign policy begins at home.

The major challenge today is the colossal debt, which stood at €3,345.4 billion at the end of March 2025, or 113.9% of GDP, and the budget vote, which has already brought down two prime ministers.

The domestic front would therefore be to thoroughly reform the French economy, juggling the desire for social protection, the imperative to reduce the tax burden in order to promote small businesses that are vital for growth, and major public investment in strategic and sovereign sectors in order to regain the tools of state sovereignty.

The stakes are immense as French society falls inexorably into psychological malaise. Marine Le Pen’s rise to power, given France’s strategic role within the EU (founding member, second largest net contributor to the budget, particularly pro-European political elite, etc.), would result in the outbreak of total political warfare against Paris.

It is particularly risky to predict the consequences of such a confrontation, as there are so many variables. However, if Marine Le Pen were to be elected and pursue her confrontational stance against Brussels, such action would further weaken the European community, which is increasingly contested across the Old Continent.„