Horn of Africa on Brink as Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal Stalls Dialogue

By Brian Ochieng Akoko, Reporter | Nakuru City – Kenya.

A major geopolitical crisis is ongoing in the Horn of Africa. This crisis centers on a controversial sea access agreement. Ethiopia and the self-declared republic of Somaliland signed this agreement.

The agreement is formally known as a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). This MoU was signed at the beginning of 2024. The agreement has created deep and dangerous tensions.

These tensions are primarily with Somalia. Somalia strongly rejects this agreement. Somalia considers Somaliland to be part of its sovereign territory. The deal is seen as a hostile move.

The Somali Federal Government views the agreement as a direct attack. It is an attack on Somalia’s territorial integrity. It is also an attack on Somalia’s national sovereignty.

Sovereignty vs. Survival

Ethiopia is a landlocked nation. It is the world’s most populous landlocked country. Ethiopia lost its coastline in 1993. This happened after Eritrea gained independence.

Ethiopia has relied on Djibouti for port access. Approximately 95% of Ethiopia’s seaborne trade goes through Djibouti. This reliance costs Ethiopia a huge sum.

It costs Ethiopia an estimated $1.5 billion annually. This cost is paid in scarce foreign currency. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly stated his position. He says sea access is an existential matter.

Regaining sea access is considered non-negotiable. It is vital for Ethiopia’s economic survival, and crucial for Ethiopia’s long-term development. Ethiopia wants to diversify its trade routes.

Ethiopia wants to reduce its dependence on Djibouti. The MoU with Somaliland addresses this strategic need. The deal reportedly grants Ethiopia a 20-kilometer stretch of coastline.

This coastline is along the Gulf of Aden. Ethiopia plans to establish a naval base there. The lease is intended to last for 50 years. This access is vital for Ethiopia’s naval ambitions.

Recognition Gamble

Somaliland is the breakaway region. It proclaimed independence in 1991. No United Nations member state recognizes Somaliland’s independence. For Somaliland, the deal offers a major political opportunity.

In exchange for the coastal access, Ethiopia agreed to conduct an in-depth assessment. This assessment is regarding the recognition of Somaliland’s statehood.

Somaliland officials see this as a path to international recognition. The deal is a political gamble for Somaliland’s long-sought goal. The reaction from Mogadishu was immediate.

The Somali government declared the MoU null and void. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed a parliamentary bill. This bill formally nullified the agreement. Somalia recalled its ambassador from Addis Ababa.

Diplomatic ties were severely strained. The dispute quickly escalated into a diplomatic war. Somalia has sought international support. It has lodged a complaint with the UN Security Council.

Somalia has rallied regional and international opposition. The Arab League and the European Union have expressed concern. They characterized the MoU as a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty.

Ankara Accord Collapses

Turkey intervened to mediate the conflict. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosted talks. These talks involved the leaders of Somalia and Ethiopia. These discussions took place in Ankara.

The mediation aimed to de-escalate the situation. The mediation aimed to find a diplomatic off-ramp.In December 2024, the Ankara Declaration was announced.

Somalia and Ethiopia agreed to restore diplomatic ties. They committed to enhance bilateral relations. Both leaders reaffirmed respect for each other’s sovereignty. They pledged to protect territorial integrity.

Crucially, the declaration outlined a path forward for sea access. The two sides agreed to start technical negotiations. These talks would iron out details for Ethiopia’s sea access.

The agreement stated that this access must be „under the authority of Somalia.“ This suggested Ethiopia would not bypass the central government. It was seen as a victory for Turkish diplomacy.

It was a positive step towards peace. However, diplomatic progress has since stalled. Technical negotiations were scheduled to begin. They were supposed to be completed within four months.

Stalled Diplomatic Progress

News leaked in July 2025 indicated an impasse. Diplomatic sources reported that negotiations had stalled completely. No meeting between the two delegations had been scheduled since April.

Ethiopia has continued to press its position. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed insists sea access is non-negotiable. His government took practical steps towards recognition of Somaliland.

Ethiopia appointed an ambassador to Somaliland. This happened in August 2024. This action angered the Somali government. It was seen as going against the spirit of the Ankara Declaration.

The diplomatic maneuvering continues into late 2025. Just recently, the President of Somaliland departed for Ethiopia. This trip happened in October 2025. It was a high-level delegation.

The Somaliland President met with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. They discussed bilateral ties. The visit suggests Ethiopia is prioritizing talks with Somaliland.

Ethiopia is pushing ahead with the MoU’s provisions. Meanwhile, the Somali President also traveled to Ethiopia. This happened earlier in the week.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud attempted to dissuade Addis Ababa. He wanted Ethiopia to halt the engagement with Somaliland.

Reports suggest Ethiopian officials sidestepped his requests. They engaged him primarily in ceremonial events. This diplomatic snub highlights the depth of the rift.

Anti-Ethiopian Bloc Forms

A key development was Somalia’s alliance with Egypt. Egypt and Somalia signed a defense pact. This defense pact was signed in August 2024. Under this agreement, Egypt committed to support Somalia’s security.

Egypt deployed military personnel. Egypt supplied heavy weaponry. This alignment serves Egypt’s interests. Egypt has long-standing tensions with Ethiopia.

These tensions are over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt views the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal as a chance to counter Ethiopia’s regional influence.

The dispute has forced regional actors to take sides. Somalia has consolidated alliances. These alliances include Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti. This forms an anti-Ethiopian bloc.

Ethiopia faces significant diplomatic pressure. The core issue remains Somalia’s sovereignty. Any recognition of Somaliland is an existential threat to Somalia.

Somalia is actively building new alliances. Somalia signed a new defense cooperation MoU with Tanzania. This happened in October 2024. Somalia is strengthening its military ties.

This is a strategic counterbalance to Ethiopia. Somalia is exerting maximum political pressure. This pressure is aimed at getting Ethiopia to retract the preliminary agreement.

Al-Shabaab Threat Rises

The continued pursuit of the MoU risks regional instability. The conflict could be further complicated. The crisis could empower militant groups. The militant group Al-Shabaab has already denounced the deal.

They called it a betrayal. Increased regional instability can boost the group. This could happen through recruitment and financial capital influx. The geopolitical crisis distracts from the fight against extremism.

Ethiopia’s actions are driven by severe economic constraints. The cost of using Djibouti’s ports is immense. The strategic need for a naval presence is also a factor.

Ethiopia views its position as a major regional power. The Red Sea is considered a natural strategic sphere. Ethiopia is determined to secure this access. The ambiguity of the original MoU is also a problem.

Ethiopian and Somaliland officials offered different accounts of the deal. The exact location of the naval facility is vague. Some claimed it was at Lugaya. Others claimed it covers 20 sq km of land and sea. This opacity fuels mistrust.

Irreconcilable Positions

The situation is characterized by maximalist positions. Ethiopia will not back down from its existential need for sea access. Somalia cannot concede on the question of territorial integrity.

No Somali government could survive the domestic backlash of ‘losing’ Somaliland. This stalemate makes Turkish-led efforts extremely difficult.

The diplomatic efforts have failed to resolve the core issue. The two countries are technically communicating. They have restored diplomatic representation.

However, the fundamental disagreement persists. Ethiopia is still engaging Somaliland directly. This violates Somalia’s stated „one-door policy.“

Navigating The Path Forward

The one-door policy demands engagement only through the central government in Mogadishu.The risk of further escalation is high. Somalia has a defense pact with Egypt.

Ethiopia has appointed an ambassador to Somaliland. These are not signs of de-escalation. The Horn of Africa is a highly volatile region. Extra-regional actors are also involved.

These actors include the UAE and Turkey. Their involvement further complicates the power dynamics. The stakes in this crisis are extremely high. They involve regional stability.

They involve the fight against militant groups. They involve the sovereignty of nations. The ongoing dispute over the MoU remains a central threat. It is a threat to peace in the Horn of Africa.

The political future of the region is uncertain. This uncertainty is directly linked to the stalled sea access deal. Ethiopia continues its ambition. Somalia continues its defense of sovereignty.

The diplomatic standoff continues. The crisis is deep. The crisis is complex. The crisis has profound regional implications. The MoU has set back years of diplomatic progress.

The détente between Ethiopia and Somalia is over. The situation demands continued hard news coverage. The instability is affecting security operations. The dispute is undermining regional cooperation efforts.

The Horn of Africa remains highly tense. The sea access deal is the main trigger. Ethiopia’s need for the sea is immense.

Somalia’s defense of sovereignty is absolute. The two positions are currently irreconcilable. The crisis is ongoing.