Global Giants Clash in Africa for Control of Green Energy’s Future

China, US, and Russia escalate diplomatic and security maneuvering across East and Southern Africa.

By Brian Ochieng Akoko, Reporter | Nakuru City – Kenya.

The continent of Africa is once again the focal point of intense global competition. This time, the prize is not oil or gold. The rewards are critical minerals essential for the world’s transition to a green economy.

This race is dramatically reshaping foreign policy, investment, and security dynamics across the continent.

Nations like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and South Africa are equiped with cobalt and lithium. They find themselves courted—and pressured—by major world powers.

This contemporary competition is often described as the „New Scramble for Africa.“ It not only focuses on territorial acquisition but also on controlling the supply chains of the 21st century.

The Strategic Shift in Global Power Play

The global dynamics around African resources have shifted fundamentally. Historically, Western powers focused on traditional commodities.

Currently, the emphasis is firmly on securing materials required for electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy storage, and advanced military technology.

This resource-driven competition involves; China, the United States, Russia, and even regional players like Turkey and the UAE. Each power employs a distinct playbook to gain strategic leverage across the eight crucial African nations.

The identified nations in recent analyses include: Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Africa, Nigeria, Sudan, and South Sudan.

China’s Dominance Through Infrastructure

China’s strategy remains comprehensive and deeply entrenched. Beijing leveraged the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to establish dominance in resource access years ago.

Chinese state-owned enterprises and private companies control significant portions of the mining, processing, and refining capacity for critical minerals. This includes up to 76% of global cobalt processing, a mineral vital to EV batteries, largely sourced from Africa.

In exchange for massive infrastructural investments—railways, ports, and power plants—African nations grant long-term access to mineral flows. This model ensures China maintains a strategic chokehold over the materials the rest of the world needs to decarbonize.

The impact of this infrastructure-for-resources approach is visible from the ports of Tanzania to mining operations in the DRC. This strategy secures Chinese industrial needs while exporting Chinese capacity and technology.

The American Counter-Strategy: Balancing and Security

The United States has recognized the vulnerability of relying on Chinese-dominated supply chains. Washington’s Africa policy has been urgently recalibrated.

The focus has shifted from humanitarian aid to strategic investment and security partnerships. It has been designed to counter Beijing’s economic penetration and Moscow’s growing security influence.

The US strategy involves promoting democratic governance, fostering transparent mineral deals, and offering security assistance. This „balancing act“ aims to give African nations alternatives to Chinese financial offers and Russian military aid.

A core component is securing rare earth metals through new trade agreements. The key legislative frameworks like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) face potential expiry or restructuring.

African leaders are strategically leveraging this rivalry, hoping to secure better terms by playing Washington and Beijing against each other.

Russia’s Mercenary-Driven Influence

Russia’s influence on the continent is distinct, focusing heavily on security and natural resource rights in conflict-prone areas. The Africa Corps have been placed under direct Russian military control, provides security assistance to vulnerable regimes.

In nations like Sudan, this model involves providing military training, counterinsurgency operations, and regime stability. In exchange they get direct access to mineral wealth, including gold and potentially other critical materials.

This resource-for-security deal is highly pragmatic. It allows Moscow to project power, challenge Western influence, and gain market access without substantial long-term economic investment.

Russia fills the security vacuum created by the withdrawal of former colonial powers. Particularly in the Sahel region. Russia has been highlighted as a powerful disruptor in the continent’s security architecture.

Climate Change: The Dual Driver of Crisis and Opportunity

The scramble for green minerals is intrinsically linked to climate change. Africa is the world’s most vulnerable region to climate impacts, even though it contributes the least to global emissions.

The continent faces severe climate risks, including frequent droughts, rising sea levels, and unpredictable weather patterns. This in turn fuels migration and food insecurity.

The original document highlighted how climate change is compounding risks in the Horn of Africa. Affected nations include; Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia.

This vulnerability creates a paradox. The materials needed to fix the global climate crisis—lithium, cobalt, manganese—are buried beneath the most climate-vulnerable populations.

African states are pushing back against the notion of remaining mere resource providers. They are demanding the requirement that raw minerals be processed into high-value components. Components like battery precursors on African soil, creating jobs and industrial capacity.

The African Union’s own Green Minerals Strategy champions this shift. AU has positioned Africa in future clean energy value chains is paramount to its socio-economic sustainability.

Regional Case Studies: From Nairobi to Pretoria

The dynamics of this new scramble play out differently across Africa’s regional powerhouses. The Infrastructure Crossroads in East Africa; Kenya and Tanzania are primarily targets for strategic infrastructure and trade logistics. Both countries possess significant mineral potential.

Tanzania, for instance, has substantial graphite deposits, another key battery component. Investment in its ports and rail networks is facilitated by China. This is aimed at streamlining the export of these resources from the interior.

Kenya, as the „Silicon Savannah,“ focuses on digital diplomacy and green tech innovation. Though, it remains a vital logistics hub for influence in the volatile Horn of Africa.

The US maintains a keen security interest here. Particularly, in counter-terrorism efforts against groups like al-Shabab, as noted in the research source.

South Africa and Nigeria: Economic Giants and Investment Targets

South Africa is a global leader in platinum and manganese, crucial for renewable energy. Its advanced economy and established institutions make it a key target for Western investment. The investment is aimed at creating transparent, non-Chinese supply chains.

The US and EU are actively seeking partnerships to invest in South African processing plants. They hope to diversify their EV manufacturing base.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and population center, is crucial for its consumer market and demographic dividend. A burgeoning digital economy, and a young population are now the primary draw for global soft power competition.

Sudan and South Sudan: The Conflict-Resource Nexus

In the fragile states of Sudan and South Sudan, the resource scramble overlaps tragically with conflict. The fight over mineral rights, particularly gold in Sudan, has directly financed militia groups and prolonged internal instability.

Russia’s security-for-resource model has been most disruptive here. Currently, it is complicating international peace-making efforts and reinforcing the link between conflict and external resource exploitation.

The Role of African Agency

A crucial element often missing from the „scramble“ narrative is African agency. African leaders and policymakers are not passive recipients of external schemes. They are strategically leveraging competing global interests.

They use digital diplomacy, climate change advocacy, and regional trade initiatives. For example, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)—to enhance their bargaining power.

By diversifying partnerships and promoting stronger regional integration, African nations aim to achieve development goals while maintaining sovereignty.

The AfCFTA, with its 1.3 billion consumer market, gives African countries collective leverage. This makes them a more appealing and less fragmented partner for global powers.

Navigating the Future: Sovereignty and Industrialization

For African states, the future depends on prioritizing industrialization over mere extraction. The long-term economic success lies in moving up the value chain.

The goal is to stop exporting raw materials and instead produce batteries, electric components, and clean energy systems domestically. This shift requires enforcing local content policies.

The policies should invest heavily in green skills training for the young population. Furthermore, it strengthens governance to prevent resource wealth from fueling corruption and conflict.

As the US, China, and Russia continue their complex dance of influence, Africa must remain laser-focused on its own interests. The continent’s vast mineral wealth, demographic potential, and strategic location are undeniable, making it an indispensable player in global politics.

The challenge is to harness this strategic importance to achieve sustainable development. In addition, it will ensure that the wealth extracted from African soil primarily benefits African people.

The coming years, leading up to 2030, will determine whether this new era of competition brings genuine prosperity.

This requires bold, visionary leadership that insists on equitable partnerships and holds global competitors accountable for environmental and social standards. The future of the global green transition hangs in the balance. A balance held by the geopolitical maneuvering on the African continent.